What duration estimate provides the best chance for a project being selected and completed successfully?

The option referring to the average of the worst-case value and the 50% probability value aligns well with risk management practices in project planning. This approach provides a balanced estimate that considers both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, offering a realistic perspective on potential project duration.

By averaging the worst-case estimate and the value that represents a 50% probability, the estimate accounts for uncertainty and variability in project execution. This is crucial because projects typically face unforeseen challenges that can extend timelines. The worst-case estimate helps capture that risk, while the 50% probability value reflects a more likely scenario based on historical data or expert judgment.

This balanced estimate is likely to lead to more informed decision-making and allows project managers to set more achievable schedules while still preparing for possible delays. Ultimately, it increases the chances of selecting a project that can be completed successfully within the proposed duration, as it provides a more nuanced understanding of timelines rather than relying solely on extremes or averages that do not factor in the likelihood of various outcomes.