What is a general practice for choosing the best cost estimate based on a bell curve of costs for past projects?

Selecting a point halfway between the average and worst-case values aligns with a balanced approach to cost estimation in project management, particularly when considering the distribution of costs shown by a bell curve. The bell curve represents the probabilities of different cost outcomes based on historical data from past projects.

By choosing a point that lies between the average and the worst-case scenarios, you account for a range that acknowledges both typical and potential higher costs without being overly conservative or optimistic. This strategy allows project managers to factor in risk and uncertainty while still aiming for a realistic estimate that reflects potential project costs.

Additionally, this approach helps in making informed decisions that accommodate variations in costs while still setting a sensible budget. It recognizes that while the average provides a useful benchmark, the worst-case offers a necessary insight into the possible extremes of project costs. This balanced midpoint thus serves as a reasonable estimate that can help manage expectations and prepare for varying project outcomes.